It is difficult to know precisely the future that awaits the housing market in Spain and other developed countries. The current demographic pattern shows that there was a decrease of 146,959 persons over the previous year, a trend that lives Spain since 2012. If the population decreases or stagnates, who will buy the homes of the future in 2015? There are many possible answers, but Credit Suisse experts argue that the chances are that housing demand collapses.
As explained experts from the Swiss bank in the latest report on the housing market (in Switzerland), today the demand is sustained by low interest rates, which allow agents to ask mortgages with costs relatively reduced. However, much of this housing demand is coming from the hand of people who are in the second half of their lives, while more young people choose more by rent.
“The demand for housing comes out by older people. The average owner in Switzerland today is 57 years. As the baby boomers achieve greater financial settlement will be more and more homes in the hands of these people that will dominate the residential property market, “says Credit Suisse report.
Young people choose to rent
“On the contrary, younger families are opting more by rent. It is increasing the gap between generations. As a result, the market for residential housing may suffer great pressure, especially when these young (one generation more smaller than the baby boomers), replace which is now holding the demand, “explain the experts.
Number of homeowners age (Switzerland)
And is that current generations are not only fewer in number than the baby boom, but they are also the heirs of the latter, so many do not need to buy a new home since they inherit their parents, or if and are owners could decide to put it for sale or rent, increasing housing supply without a corresponding increase in demand.
“From 2018 onwards, demographic change will be a factor of weakness for the expected demand in a few years we could see a drop of one third of the demand today,” sentenced economists at Credit Suisse.
This could also be extrapolated to Spain, where 78% of households have home ownership. 46% of the population has no mortgage or housing loans outstanding, while 32% still has to pay off the mortgage.
One option that could enliven the housing market is the arrival of immigrants, who are often in the first half of his life: “The desire of many newcomers to Switzerland immigrants buying a home is serving to support demand housing, “says Credit Suisse report.